The current stabilisation in the number of murders is cause for concern especially because the stabilisation is at a very high level. Also, given the seriousness of the crime, and the trauma and loss associated with it, the murder level is a key indicator of progress in respect of crime more generally. The most notable increases in provincial murder levels between 1994 and 1998 were in the Western Cape (32.5%), Mpumalanga (9.9%) and Northern Cape (9.2%).

For attempted murder, year on year figures are as follows 1994: 27 300. 1995: 26 512. 1996: 28 516. 1997: 28 l48 and 1998: 29 418.

Serious assault (also referred to as assault with intent to do grievous bodily harm) displays a remarkably consistent trend across the recording period. The crime — which is generally distinguishable from common assault by the use of a weapon. such as a knife or broken bottle — has shown an overall increase since January 1994 (see Figure 2). There is however a clear stabilisation in the reporting of serious assault over the last three years. The year on year figures for serious assault cases recorded by the police are as follows: 1994: 210 250: 1995: 220 990: 1996: 230 425: 1997: 234 554: and 1998: 234 056.

The reporting of serious assault shows the clearest seasonal fluctuation of all reported crime types. The peaks in the reporting of serious assault are in December of each year. with the troughs being in June of each year.

Data from the National Victim Survey suggests that a limited number of factors dominate the majority of cases of assault most incidents occur in the home or at places of entertainment, with victims often knowing their offenders. In addition, excessive consumption of alcohol appears to characterise a significant proportion of incidents, It is possible to assume therefore that regular and predictable increases in inter-personal violent crime are likely to occur when more people are at home, when greater quantities of alcohol are

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