Boom days ahead for the wireless market

By Christian Dupont, director of Americas Wireless Communications Business Unit

Consider this: After Alexander Graham Bell's invention, it took nearly 77 years to sell 50 million telephones. This year alone, consumers are predicted to snatch up 110 million digital cellular phones. The numbers are a telling indication of how quickly the connectivity and convenience of wireless phones are becoming a big part of our lives.

The meteoric rise and near universal acceptance of wireless products are certainly impressive. And when you consider that more than half the world has yet to make its first phone call, the potential of wireless appears almost limitless. The boom days for the wireless market still lie ahead.

With so much promise, the natural question for wireless manufacturers is how to tap this vast potential. What type of wireless products will best serve the needs of tomorrow's consumers? There isn't one single answer, and that's just what makes the market so potentially large. Future wireless systems will be as diverse as the people who own them, with user-specific functions far beyond those of today's voice-only phones.

Users will download small applications, or "applets", from a network like the Internet that give them the precise functionality they need. For instance, a heart surgeon might download the latest bypass techniques on his cell phone before going into surgery. Meanwhile, a weekend sailor could run a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite application that helps guide her safely back to harbor. Still, some users will want their phone for the same narrow voiceband communications they use now. Much like the personal computer, future wireless systems will break the one-size-fits-all model, becoming more specialized, more personal and more intimately involved with the user. Tomorrow's wireless systems must efficiently and effectively serve all of these users.

What's the plan?

The opportunities are vast, but the continued proliferation of wireless products depends largely on how well the industry plans to meet the needs of this next-generation of wireless users. Adding data transmission and networking functionality to existing voice service requires a combination of flexible and powerful hardware and software platforms. These requirements will become increasingly important as consumers demand to use their systems seamlessly across different transmission standards, anywhere in the world. After all, average consumers don't care if they are transmitting via GSM or IS-136. They just want their phone to work when and where they need it to -- whether they are walking down a city street or fishing in Alaska. Wireless end-equipment and components manufacturers must address these challenges, all while continuing to reduce the price and power consumption of their products -- not an easy task in a market bounding forward with an average annual growth rate of 35 percent.

Individually, no single company is capable of developing and launching all the systems and platforms needed to enable the next generation of wireless service. All the players in the wireless industry must work in harmony to meet future challenges and deliver on its promises. This means developing open systems and platforms that will allow and encourage new companies to add their unique piece to the wireless puzzle.

The importance of cooperation

Texas Instruments believes this cooperation is important, so it is playing key roles in industry initiatives like the MIPS Forum, CDMA Development Group (CDG), Universal Wireless Coms Consortium (UWCC), ETSI, TIA and CTIA. But regardless of whether companies take advantage of these opportunities, it is imperative that the industry moves quickly and decisively to embrace a vision for the future of wireless. Many companies are already developing and implementing next-generation strategies for these 21st century applications. As the industry evolves, however, it must continue to think in terms of flexibility, scalability and programmability.

With the right approach, the wireless market is poised for unprecedented growth. Remember that the wireless market has grown 15 times faster in this decade than the wired phone market did during seven decades. The industry can certainly be proud of the amazing progress it has made thus far. With focus, dedication and cooperation, however, the best days still lie ahead.